Analyzing The Market Metrics. Making Better Trades.

Market Metrics: June 18th

Finally, some movement beyond the trading range!

Friday’s action was very constructive.  The high volume bar looks like confirmation of the move beyond the inverted head and shoulders.

Market Metrics

If this is a new leg up it could extend beyond 1400.  The first challenge area for price will likely be the 1360ish area (S&P 500) followed by the 1380ish level.

I’m long the SSO.  If the futures and early trading stay positive I will add a couple more small positions on Monday.

The gap at the 1290 – 1300 level remains, but I think the one near 1350 will fill first.


Stock Market Analysis: June 6th


I’m thinking this level will be visited again.  If  1267 holds it may be a good area to go long and then sell near the last high.

Market Metrics: Follow Through

Today was a good day for the markets and a welcome change.  Let’s see if there will be some follow through to the upside because I don’t think the market is out of the woods.

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Market Metrics: Tomorrow’s Trading

Price sliced through my 1325ish level like a knife through warm butter.

Next critical level is 1292 on the S&P.  If price trades below this level it will be very uncomfortable, but not the end of the world.  Bottom line: I don’t want to see price fall and stay below 1292.

The declining wedge pattern is still in play.  Tomorrow should be interesting.

Market Metrics: S&P 1340

Tonight the S&P closed below the critical 1340 level.  The DJ-30 has now confirmed the downtrend and all indices are trading in lock step.

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Stock Market Analysis: Thursday, May 10th

The market continues to chop and grind.  What looked like a mini-rally is likely weak hands covering shorts and government money doing their best to keep the market supported.

I had hoped this corrective pattern would trace out a simple triangle.  With the lows being broken on May 8th that option is off the table.   It looks like a descending bullish wedge will form in this last leg down.  Expect this to take several days of grinding trading.

I’m still short a partial AAPL position.  I took partial profits as is my style.  I’m short CAT, too, and have banked partial profits from it as well.

Now would be a good time to take a trading break.  I think long only traders will probably have to wait awhile before new trades set up.

Market Metrics: Monday May 7th

This chart shows my current thinking on the market action.  I don’t think there will be much forward progress when the big kahuna (AAPL) is in a downtrend.

I have a short position in AAPL and am looking at another position to short on Monday.  I’ll tell you which one if it triggers and after I take a position.


Stock Market Analysis: Early a.m. Tweet

This move could conceivably run all the way back to 1422 before making a hard leg down.  I don’t think that’s likely, but never say “never” when it comes to the market!

Stock Market Analysis

Stock Market Analysis: Not So Fast!

The market has been swinging between S&P 500 levels of 1357 and 1392 for more than a week.  Expect more of the same.

Despite today’s encouraging trading — (thank you APPL) the longer term trends are still under pressure. Read the rest of this entry »

Stock Market Analysis: Retrace

A very weak retrace

1390 is the S&P’s magic number. That would reclaim 50% of the drop from the April 2 high.

Yet it’s difficult to be bullish — tepid volume and numerous negative clues on the major indices are not hopeful.

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